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Old 09-16-2007, 12:30 AM
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Thumbs up The Chinese Yuan

Yuan

I'm not an expert on foreign currency trading but here's an interesting article I ran across which argues for the rise of the Chinese Yuan in the years to come.

Without a doubt, the Chinese yuan looks poised to appreciate most in the years to come. 

China has been suppressing their currency for many years. They believe a weak currency is the key to driving and maintaining export growth. Export growth is critical for them as it creates jobs. And jobs are critical for the ruling elite in China because they are extremely concerned about the potential for social unrest. 

But pressure is building for a change in China's currency policy. It will change, and when it does, this currency promises to soar. Eventually, the domestic consumer market will evolve in China, so Chinese will buy the cheap goods they create themselves (rather than importing them to the west). 

When that happens, China will no longer have a need to suppress their currency, and the yuan should move dramatically higher to its true value.

Most economists believe the yuan is at least 40-60% undervalued against the dollar. I think it could be much more. Back in the late 80's, the Japanese yen and Japan were in a similar place as China now. Western nations forced the yen higher in value. And it soared around 80-90% in just a few years. 




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Old 09-16-2007, 03:14 AM
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Typical self-fulfilling prophecy. THe more people think Yuan will rise, the more people will try to buy Yuan, and it actually will rise then.
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Old 09-16-2007, 07:25 AM
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whats the exchange rate for yen?

10 billion yen for a dollar?? j/k

say ahhhh...
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Old 10-28-2007, 09:24 AM
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Having just been to HK/China...

Before China changed its exchange rate from one that was a so called peg to a different system not long ago, it was around 8.28 Yuan to the USD (or around 1.06 Yuan to the HKD)

When I was in HK/China some 2-3 weeks ago, the rate of exchange is now around 7.5 Yuan to the USD (or 0.968 Yuan to the HKD), so it has definitely appreciated since then.

As for Japanese yen, in that span, it was around 117 to the USD. Since left HK a week ago, the yen has risen to about 113-115 to the USD.
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Old 10-28-2007, 11:14 AM
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Long yuan / Short dollar seems like a safe trade if you're into the currency thing.
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Old 11-23-2007, 02:16 AM
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I think as you see the USD is depreciating now, and the US wanted Chinese currency to rise to balance the trade
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Old 11-23-2007, 03:41 AM
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The rate of the Yuan isn't set by the market, it's controlled by the Chinese government and it's artificially set low on purpose...

There is growing pressure on the Chinese government for the yuan to be freely traded and have the market set the value of the Yuan...

of course if the Yuan goes up, its advantage of exporting "cheap" products are reduced, their export and manufacturing industry would be hit hard and it really opens up it's own market for a western invasion...

That's WOOOOOOOOOOOO Damn it!


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Old 11-23-2007, 05:04 AM
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doubt the CCCP would be stupid enough to go the fed/fake reserve bank bs and let some bankers set exchange rates and interest rates.

if you control the supply of money you control the value.
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